Accountability gap / 07

Rafah and the limits of the US red line

8–28 May 2024

The officials in key roles

UK: Rishi Sunak, prime minister; David Cameron, foreign secretary; Kemi Badenoch, business and trade secretary; Grant Shapps, defence secretary. US: Joe Biden, president; Antony Blinken, secretary of state; Lloyd Austin, defence secretary. UN mission lead: Linda Thomas-Greenfield.

What was reported at the time

Reuters reported a tent-camp fire following an Israeli strike on 26 May, with at least 45 deaths reported. It had reported a US bomb-shipment pause on 8 May; on 28 May it reported no broader US policy change following the deaths.

The warning

The ICJ’s 24 May order addressed operations in Rafah capable of inflicting conditions bringing about physical destruction of the protected group.

What governments did

The US did pause a shipment, demonstrating that a lever existed. Kirby said the latest Rafah deaths did not meet the administration’s threshold for a major ground operation crossing its red line. The UK had retained licences and later suspended only a subset in September.

Protective options / not a claim of action taken

What was available

Biden, Blinken and Austin could expand conditions or pauses on offensive assistance. Sunak, Cameron and Badenoch could reassess relevant licences against escalating warnings rather than wait for a government change.

The documented gap

Partial protective action with wider support retained

The gap is between a limited restriction and the wider pressure available. It is inaccurate to say the US did absolutely nothing, but equally inaccurate to describe the bomb pause as a comprehensive arms cutoff.

Evidence boundaries

The ICJ order’s conditional operative wording matters. A policy red line is different from the legal tests for unlawful attacks; this entry does not collapse them.

Sources

S107, [S78, S79, S17, S64, S30, S31]

Roles and powers are explained in the decision-maker map. Sources distinguish reporting, official decisions and legal conclusions.

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